Saturday Evening (2/7) Weather Discussion

(Updated 7pm)

Recorded Highs Today via Evening Climate Report

Today was beautiful out but tomorrow looks even nicer. Expect lots of sunshine with high temperatures nudging upward a few degrees.  Clouds will be on the increase late in the day ahead of a weak low pressure system dropping into the Ohio Valley.  Light showers will work into western portions of the state early Monday AM and spread east throughout the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will then be dry before a strong clipper system swings through on Thursday.  This will produce upslope snow showers across the favored western mountains but can't rule out a flurry or two bleeding over east of there.

The bigger story will be the return of very cold, arctic air that will follow this clipper and sticks around through the weekend.  Don't let the recent warmth and lack of snow fool you...there's still lots of winter left to go.  I keep seeing questions concerning whether VA snow is over and the simple answer is no.  Climatology favors accumulating snow potential all the way through March and the beginning of April.  As a matter of fact, Harrisonburg saw 32.7" of snow fall after this date last year accounting for nearly 70% of the final 46.9" total snowfall.  It's just a matter of time before one of these cold shots meets up with some southern stream moisture...patience snow lovers.

12z gfs ensemble mean highs and lows for KSHD (Staunton) via wxbell