Sunday, June 14, 2015

Hot and humid with scattered storms over next few days; still keeping an eye on the Gulf

(Posted Sunday 6/14 6:30pm)

The Shenandoah Valley Regional Airport (KSHD) station hit 92 today...the 4th 90+ day in a row.  The same hot, muggy air mass will remain over the area Monday and Tuesday likely keeping the streak alive.  Chances for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue...any of which may become strong to severe with brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.  The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted northern parts of the area in the slight risk for severe storms both Monday and Tuesday.
Monday (left) and Tuesday (right) Severe Weather Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center

Still watching Invest 91L which has moved off the Yucatan into the southern Gulf.  It will soon encounter weaker, more favorable upper level winds which may allow further strengthening into tropical storm Bill.  Impact wise, it really won't make a difference whether this system becomes named or not.

Current Infrared Satellite of Invest 91L
Model consensus takes the system towards the Texas coast before turning it north and eventually northeast around an area of high pressure over the southeast.  The biggest concern will be very heavy rainfall along its path...especially over eastern Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and up into the Missouri Valley which have had a very wet past few months.   Here in Virginia, its remnants may enhance rainfall late week.  

Model Tracks (left) and 5-day rainfall (right)

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