Monday, June 15, 2015

Hot with more storms today; still no Bill in Gulf

(Posted Monday 6/15 8am)

Good Monday morning! Another hot, humid day on tap for the Shenandoah Valley with 90+ degrees likely (would be 5th 90 degree day in a row). 

A few showers ongoing this morning over the northern valley will diminish over the next several hours. Sunshine will then increase instability this afternoon allowing more scattered popup showers and storms to form...very hit or miss but each capable of producing very heavy rain and gusty winds. An upper level disturbance will bring a bit more widespread chance on Tuesday.

As for invest 91L...although hurricane hunters found tropical storm force winds well north and east of its center yesterday, it remains unnamed due to the disorganization of convection and lack of defined low level circulation. They will be investigating again this morning. Still likely this becomes a weak tropical storm (Bill) before landfall along the Texas coast sometime tomorrow. The heavy flooding rains will be the big story.

Image: morning water vapor imagery of invest 91L

Image: 6z high res nam rainfall over next 48 hours...widespread 2-4" with locally as much as 10" falling over saturated areas will lead to flooding across east Texas/western Louisiana

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