Showers, Showers, and More Showers (Some Severe Storms Friday?)

(Posted Monday 4/6 7:30 pm)

After a sunny, warm, A+ day...here comes the clouds and showers.  Latest radar imagery shows the first batch already beginning to push east into western North Carolina and far southwest Virginia.  This will fill in and lead to shower chances throughout the day Tuesday.

Radar 7 pm

Disturbance # 2 is right on its heels and will ride southwest flow aloft into the area bringing more shower chances Wednesday and Thursday.

500 mb analysis and water vapor imagery showing our first 2 disturbances this week

Fortunately, temperatures will still be warm with upper 60s and 70s likely Tuesday and Wednesday. A bit of a back door cold front will push in from the north on Thursday and set up northwest to southeast from the Shenandoah Valley down to VA Beach.  Areas south and west of this boundary will remain warm, while locations just to the north will be quite chilly with highs in the 50s.  The Harrisonburg area is a tough call being right on the edge, but will have to lean cooler since cold wedges always seem to over-perform.

Temperatures 2pm Thursday

For Friday, we'll likely see a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms swing through with the cold front---some of which may approach severe limits (mainly a wind threat) depending on exactly when it moves through.  If the passage is during the late afternoon or evening after peak heating, there would be more instability for thunderstorms to feed off of---a lesser threat otherwise.  That's the main question since the upper level wind dynamics look to be there.  Check back for more on this potential later this week. Either way, this front will clear things out for what looks like a very nice weekend.