Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Thoughts on the Wednesday Night/Thursday Snow Storm

(posted 6pm)

Overview: An upper level disturbance coming out of the southwest will dig into Texas spawning a low over the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon.  This low will slowly strengthen as it tracks east and eventually northeast across the Florida Panhandle to 100 miles or so off the coast of Hatteras. While this track favors highest precipitation totals over southern Virginia and the Carolinas, we'll still see lighter amounts make it all the way up into northern parts of the state.  With thermal profiles favoring all snow, it'll really all come down to just how far north the low tracks.  This forecast is mostly based off a 12z euro/18z rgem blend...bumped a bit north to account for the "under 36 hour north trend" we've seen so often this year.  Since there's still no clear cut model consensus on track, keep in mind these amounts may need to be shifted a good 50-75 north or south.  This continues to remind me a lot of 1/28-1/29, 2014.  With that said...here's my call:

Shenandoah Valley Thoughts

Timing: light snow showers break out 10pm-1am across the southern Valley...12am-3am northern Valley....best chance at accumulations will be through sunrise before tapering off late morning...a few additional flurries or light snow showers may kick up again Thursday afternoon and evening as another piece of energy swings through.  

Amounts: totals generally taper off the farther north you go.... 1-2" across the southern Valley... coating to 1" elsewhere...keep in mind these are very track dependent and may need adjusted.

Additional thoughts: with lows well into the 20s Wednesday night, expect what snow does fall to stick and make roads hazardous Thursday morning giving many kids get another cancellation or delay....nothing has been issued but wouldn't be surprised to see winter weather advisories go up for southern parts of the area during the day tomorrow

Check back for my final call Wednesday 6pm


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