(2/26 3pm update)
Storm Recap: No huge surprises with this one.... coating to 2" totals were common across the Shenandoah Valley with significantly higher amounts down towards the NC/VA state line. A few additional light snow showers possible tonight as an upper disturbance swings through. Next widespread shot at precipitation arrives Sunday night/Monday.
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| Mid Atlantic Snow Totals via MARFC |
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| Zoomed in Shenandoah Valley Totals |
End Update
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(Posted 6pm)
Overview from yesterday: An upper level disturbance coming out of the southwest will dig into Texas spawning a low over the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon. This low will slowly strengthen as it tracks east and eventually northeast across the Florida Panhandle to 100 miles or so off the coast of Hatteras. While this track favors highest precipitation totals over southern Virginia and the Carolinas, we'll still see lighter amounts make it all the way up into northern parts of the state. With thermal profiles favoring all snow, it'll really all come down to just how far north the low tracks. This forecast is mostly based off a 12z euro/18z rgem blend...bumped a bit north to account for the "under 36 hour north trend" we've seen so often this year. Since there's still no clear cut model consensus on track, keep in mind these amounts may need to be shifted a good 50-75 north or south. This continues to remind me a lot of 1/28-1/29, 2014. With that said...here's my call:
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| A look at our storm this afternoon |
Today's Update: The "under 36 hour north trend" has indeed occurred forcing me to nudge higher snow accumulations farther north. Taking some of the guidance verbatim, this might actually need to be shifted even more...but will bank on subsidence (sinking air) between this coastal and a weaker system currently swinging into the Great Lakes which should help weaken the northwestern precipitation flank to some degree. I also added a 6-10" area where short range models are aggressively suggesting a very heavy band with snow rates pushing 1-2" per hour.
Shenandoah Valley Thoughts
Timing: light snow showers break out 10pm-1am across the southern Valley...12am-3am northern Valley....best chance at accumulations will be through sunrise before tapering off late morning...a few additional flurries or light snow showers may kick up again Thursday evening as another piece of energy swings through.
Amounts: totals generally taper off the farther north you go.... 2-4" across the far southern Valley... 1-2" for central areas... coating to 1" farther north.
Additional thoughts: with lows well into the 20s Wednesday night, expect what snow does fall to stick and make roads hazardous Thursday morning giving many kids get another cancellation or delay.
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