First things first....here's a look at Tuesday's system (a weak low off the Carolina coast). Not a huge deal for Virginia, but southern areas could once again see a few flakes. There may be enough upslope component with winds coming in off the Atlantic for light accumulations across parts of southwest VA, with chances increasing as you get down into the Carolina mountains. Even coastal areas of North Carolina will get in on some of the action as the low strengthens and departs tomorrow evening.
Looking ahead at system # 2 (Thursday's system), an analog I'm starting to like is the 1/27-1/28 2014 event. Low pressure formed across the northern Gulf and tracked east-north-east to off the SC coast. The bulk of the precipitation stayed across eastern sections of North Carolina and southeast VA but light to moderate snows stretched far enough north and west to even get the mountain areas of western NC and southwest VA in on the action. The cold was much more entrenched allowing coastal areas of the Carolinas to see significant snowfall...certainly not expecting that. Here's the snowfall map from that storm but don't get bogged down on specifics....just looks pretty similar in regards to where the best axis of snow may end up.
|1/27-1/28 2014 System|