I posted this to the Facebook page but figured I'd be good to go ahead and share on the blog.
1) We have a clipper approaching the area tonight. The heaviest snows with this will occur across the Laurel Highlands of SW Pennsylvania into the Allegheny Mountains of northern WV and western MD where I'm expecting a pretty large area of 6+ inches. The northern Shenandoah Valley will also do well where winter storm warnings have already been issued for the potential for 5 or more inches of snow. Amounts will decrease as you head south down I-81 but still think a few inches are possible across the central Valley.
2) The clipper will eventually transfer its energy off the coast and form a coastal system which will become quite the Nor'Easter for parts of the northeast (blizzard watches are already going up here). How close it forms and how quickly it strengthens are huge determining factors in regard to how much snow coastal areas see. I do think it'll be close enough to throw some wrap around bands all the way down into portions of central and southeast Virginia where light accumulations are possible. This wrap around could be a wild card elsewhere as a few models want to extend the potential all the way back into western VA. This could keep additional snow showers in the Shenandoah Valley forecast all the way through Monday night and Tuesday morning so definitely something to watch.
3) The third aspect will be the upslope snow. Northwest winds will pick up as the coastal departs increasing upslope snow chances in the western mountains Monday PM-Tuesday. Some of this will be aided by another weaker piece of clipper energy pivoting down around the departing Nor'Easter. 1-3" will be possible across the favored upslope areas of western NC/eastern TN/SW VA/southern WV.
Putting everything together, here is what I come up with snow-wise. Keep in mind most areas start as rain or a rain/snow mix before colder air quickly works in aloft. I will update this later this afternoon as needed.
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