1/23-1/24 Storm Recap
The coastal storm which brought snow, sleet, and both freezing and plain rain to our area is racing up the coast. Looking back, it's obvious warm air aloft won out quite quickly so most areas saw more liquid fall than anything else. Some ice totals were pretty impressive including 0.38" reported near Wintergreen. As for snow and sleet, the northern Valley and higher elevations saw a coating to an inch with as much as 4" reported at Snowshoe. The lower end of my forecast worked okay for some locations...while a bust for others with lots of rain. A few degrees colder several thousand feet up and we could have been talking quite the snowstorm. |
| Left: Reported Totals....Right: Final Call |
Another System on its Heels
With that system out of the way, quite a quick turn around as we get ready for the next...this time another clipper. It's quickly dropping southeast bringing snow to parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas. There's good agreement we'll see this thing dive south of the Ohio River before transferring its energy off the coast and becoming yet another major snowstorm for parts of the northeast and New England.
As for here, this will be a case of the vort. max passing well to our south...what it usually takes to get some accumulations from clippers in the Valley. Rain or a rain/snow mix should begin to break out Sunday evening before enough cold air gets dragged in overnight Sunday into Monday changing things over to snow.
We then will have to watch as the coastal storm develops and tracks up the coast for the potential for some wrap around banding especially east towards I95. I'm liking the chance for even southeast VA areas to get in on the snow action come Monday. Areas from Lynchburg to Charlottesville down to Danville will end up squeezed between the best lift and struggle to see much.
Thoughts for the Shenandoah Valley
- Timing: Rain and snow showers break out Sunday evening...becoming steadier and changing to all snow overnight. The worst conditions will be Monday morning into early afternoon before tapering off to lighter snow showers Monday evening.
- Amounts: This looks to be another case of a rather sharp snow gradient setting up over the Valley. Southern locations may struggle to see a coating while the far northern Valley could be dealing with as much as 6" of snow. Keep in mind that wet snow will quickly become a dry, powdery type snow that will lead to higher snow-liquid equivalents. Some early 1st guesses for a few Shenandoah Valley locations:
- Lexington: Light snow showers...maybe up to a coating
- Staunton: Coating to 1"
- Harrisonburg: 1-3"
- Luray: 1-3"
- Strasburg: 2-4"
- Front Royal: 2-4"
- Winchester: 3-6"
Check back tomorrow afternoon for my final call.
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