1/14 4pm storm update
Another minor storm in the books. It went pretty much as expected other than a lack of the severe ice in the North Carolina piedmont. This was due to a lack of precipitation once sub-freezing temperatures finally worked in. Be careful and watch out for areas of black ice as the sun goes down this evening. Here's a look at reported snow/sleet and freezing rain totals:
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| Snow/Sleet Totals |
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| Freezing Rain Totals |
END UPDATE
Tuesday 1/13 6pm
Here are my thoughts for tonight into tomorrow morning. We have high pressure forcing cold air south into the region. At the same time..a weak wave of low pressure off the Carolina Coast is beginning to form. This will allow precipitation to develop and work across the area overnight. The Shenandoah Valley will be on the northwestern fringe with limited moisture...but it will increase the further south and east you go. I still wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a few flakes or a light dusting, especially along and east of the Blue Ridge where there will be a bit of upslope enhancement like we saw across the higher elevations of the southern VA Blue Ridge earlier today. The main event will occur across the piedmont of North Carolina into central VA where there is potential for this to become a decent ice event. There also very well may be a strip that sees an inch or two of snow...most likely somewhere just northwest of Richmond up through Fredericksburg (southeast of DC). I will say that this is a low-confidence event...particularly because models can't seem to agree with how far north and west the best precipitation rates get...but also because we are dealing with borderline temperatures across the areas that will see the most precipitation. With that said, there's certainly lots of both bust and overachieve potential.
I'll be using twitter to track this overnight so be sure to follow me here: https://twitter.com/NoApologyVAwx
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