Well here it is...the first snow map for winter 2014-2015. I wouldn't typically make one for flurries...but it is the first event of the season and I haven't got to make one in almost 8 months (and I was pretty bored in class). Bottom line with this storm: it won't be a big deal at all. The area highlighted in light blue has the best chance at seeing light snow showers/flurries before precipitation comes to an end overnight...even here-not everyone will see flakes. The darker shading of blue is where I can see up to a quick coating of snow possible. This is most likely across the highest elevations of Massanutten Mountain and the Blue Ridge Mountains, especially the area between Swift Run Gap up towards between Front Royal and Linden (including the Shenandoah National Park). Out towards I-95, it's going to be a race between cold air arriving and precipitation coming to an end...so not completely out of the question but more unlikely.
The bigger story will be the cold, arctic air on tap for Friday. The combination of high temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30s and winds gusting up to 20 mph will make it feel like it's in the mid 20s for much of the day across western Virginia. We'll moderate a bit Saturday before another system swings through Sunday into Monday. Right now, this is looking like mostly rain across the Valley...mixing with snow across the higher elevations of West Virginia. I'll have an update on it sometime tomorrow. For those that see flakes tonight, enjoy!
*Interesting Note: Harrisonburg has only seen November accumulating snow 1 time in the past 15 years (2008). That winter (08-09) ended up well below normal in terms of snowfall with just 12.2" recorded.