Wednesday, November 12, 2014

(11/12) Quick Update on Thursday Night's Flakes

(11/12 6:30pm)
Quick update on the system bringing a few flakes Thursday night.  The current 500 mb analysis map shows the two pieces of energy that will be responsible for the light precipitation late tomorrow into Friday:  1) a piece of northern stream energy rotating through the Great Lakes into the northern mid-Atlantic & 2)a weak wave of low pressure that will form along Carolina Coast before racing northeast and out to sea.  We will end up sandwiched between the two...but there should be just enough convergence to develop a few rain/snow showers across the state.
CAPS/OU 500 MB Analysis
Here's a quick timeline on how things should play out...I've included a GIF of this afternoon's 3.6 km resolution WRF-NMM model since I think it's handling it well:

  • a few scattered showers/sprinkles develop by tomorrow evening...could even start as snow across the higher elevations of WV
  • this will spread east and transition to light snow flurries after sunset
  • precipitation as far east as I-95 could see a brief period of flakes before precipitation moves out
  • the typical western facing upslope areas of West Virginia will see light upslope snow showers continue into the early morning hours on Friday where light accumulations (up to an 1") are possible
  • elsewhere, just expecting a few flakes in the accumulation
  • not everyone will see them...but if you love snow enough, will be worth keeping the porch light on for 
WRF-NMM (TropicalTidbits)


  1. Thanks for the analysis. Looking forward to reading your thoughts about Sunday night into Monday.

  2. Not a problem...thanks Steve. I'll have an update on that sometime tomorrow night or Friday. Thinking mostly rain at this point.