Wednesday, November 12, 2014

11/12: Front Arrives Today Bringing Colder Weather; Update on Thursday Night Flakes

Wednesday 11/12 (4am)
Today marks the transition period back to below average temperatures as a front pushes through west to east this morning. The cold air will lag a bit behind it allowing one more relatively mild day with temperatures getting up into the 55-60 range across the Valley.  Winds will gradually transition to out of the northwest this afternoon and evening helping to usher in chillier air for the rest of the week and the weekend.

2pm Wednesday Temperatures: Much Colder Air Working In Behind the Front

A few flurries/light snow showers are still on the table Thursday night into Friday as we wind up between two minor systems: 1) a piece of northern stream energy rotating through the Great Lakes into the northern mid-Atlantic & 2)a weak wave of low pressure that will form along Carolina Coast before racing northeast and out to sea.  There should be enough convergence between the two to form a bit of light precipitation.  The 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet up) relative humidity map below shows where some of the better convergence will be.  
850 mb Relative Humidity-Thursday Evening
Any precipitation that does fall could be a rain/snow mix before changing to just snow later overnight.  It may even get cold enough for flakes all the way to I-95.    
850 mb Temperatures Early-Friday AM
Since these systems are weak and there will be a pretty decent layer of dry air at the surface...not everyone will see snow.  With that said...for those that do, I wouldn't be surprised if someone saw a quick dusting.  The bigger impact will be temperatures with highs struggling to get out of the upper 30s Friday.  Lows both Friday and Saturday nights will likely dip into the low to mid 20s marking our coldest lows of the season so far.  Bundle up!

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