Thursday, October 16, 2014

Nice Fall Weekend Ahead; A Few High Elevation Snow Showers Saturday Night?

Very Nice Next Few Days
The upper low responsible for our recent stretch of dreary weather is finally departing into Canada.  In its wake, weather is looking fabulous Friday and Saturday.  Expect lots of sun with temperatures warming into the low to mid 60s each day.  If you haven't had a chance to get out and see some of the fall foliage starting to peak around the Shenandoah Valley, I'd highly recommend to this weekend.

Mountain Snow Flakes Saturday Night
With that being said, counterclockwise flow around the aforementioned upper low spinning off into southeastern Canada will catapult a piece of energy out of Canada towards our area during the later part of the day Saturday into Saturday night.  Although this clipper-like system won't have much moisture to work with, there should be enough lift along the western slopes to develop some precipitation.  With temperatures plenty cold enough aloft (below freezing at 850 mb, a few thousand feet above the surface) and marginally cold enough at the surface across the higher elevations, a few snow showers/flurries are possible across the highest elevations of the Allegheny Mountains.
12z NAM simulated reflectivity Saturday 11pm
12z NAM 850 mb temperatures Saturday 11pm
Below is a map with the area I believe has the best shot at getting flakes based off a combination of elevation, wind direction, and slope orientation.  With that said, there have been similar mid to late October events where a few stray flurries even made it across the first range of higher ridges in WV to the next higher range in western Rockingham and Highland counties.  You may ask why a few flakes matter....and the answer is they don't...well except to the 3 weather weenies that will be up on Spruce Knob at 4,863 feet Sunday morning at 1am waiting for the first white gold viewing of the season.  Yup, been there done that!

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