Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Shenandoah Valley Storm Timing and Impacts

(updated 3:45 pm)
  • A few scattered pre-frontal showers possible through this evening..these won't be a huge deal
  • Squall line will move into southern portions of the Valley around midnight before advancing towards the northern Valley by daybreak
  • Storms will taper off southwest to northeast on Wednesday (late morning for southern Valley/early afternoon for northern Valley)
  • Bottom Line: Impacts in Valley greatest in the 12am-2pm time-frame Wednesday depending on exact location
12z High Resolution NAM Predicted Radar for 8am Wednesday

  • Flash Flooding
    • a 6-10 hour period of very heavy rainfall
    • amounts will generally be in the 1-2" range with localized areas receiving up to 3"
    • some areas will exceed flash flood guidance leading to small creek and stream flooding
    • ponding on roadways + wet leaves will make for slick roads
Flash Flood Watch for Most of the Shenandoah Valley (2-3" possible)

  • Strong Winds
    • non-thunderstorm winds will continue through the rest of the day into the overnight
      • winds 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph (especially on ridge tops)
    • scattered strong to severe straight line winds will be possible with squall line
      • any thunderstorm that develops along line will be capable of transporting strong upper level winds down to the surface
      • not everyone will see these winds; some areas will just see heavy rain
      • scattered power outages likely
  • Bottom Line: 
    • If you live somewhere that is typically impacted by rising creeks and streams during heavy rain events, keep an eye on them through tomorrow.  
    • Tie down or bring in any loose items outside
    • Be prepared in case you do end up losing power

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