Friday, October 3, 2014

10/3: Strong Cold Front on the Way; Big Changes for the Weekend

10/3 445pm update
Pre-frontal showers have moved into the area, a few hours earlier than expected.  The actual cold front is still well off to our west, slowly pushing towards our area overnight.  Until it passes early Saturday morning, on and off light showers will continue.  Gusty southerly breezes will gradually become more westerly with the passage of the front, bringing in much colder air for tomorrow.  It's coming!

(From Earlier this Morning)
10/3 2am
Forecast Discussion
The strong cold front responsible for our weekend shot of chilly air is inching ever closer this morning.  This front was responsible for quite the severe weather outbreak across parts of the southern plains and and Mississippi Valley on Thursday into the overnight.  Fortunately for us, the best wind dynamics will pass to our north with better instability staying to our south so widespread severe weather here isn't expected.  With that said, some gusty showers (non-severe) are still likely tomorrow evening into the overnight.
Current Radar
The bigger story still looks like it'll be the cold autumn air on tap for the weekend.  Temperatures behind the front are generally dropping 10-20 degrees.. Highs through the weekend will be stuck in the low to mid 60s which may even feel a bit cooler Saturday with gusty westerly breezes.  How low we get Saturday night will highly depend on how quickly winds diminish during the evening.  Regardless, this will likely be our coldest night since May 19th.  Temperatures will moderate early next week before another shot at rain by mid-week.  Be sure to check out the fall foliage which should really be going after this weekend's cold air.

24 hour temperature change
Shenandoah Valley 5 Day Forecast
Today: 75. Although an isolated, pre-frontal shower can't be ruled out early in the afternoon, the majority of the rain won't come until the main line swings through during the evening (after 7pm).  These will continue into the early morning hours Saturday before ending.

Saturday: 54/63.  Mostly cloudy during the morning, becoming partly cloudy later in the day.  Westerly breezes gusting 10-20 mph. .  Temperatures will drop quickly Saturday night under clear skies (even quicker if winds die faster).

Sunday: 38/64.  Another cool day.  Mostly sunny.

Monday: 42/71.  Warmer.  Partly cloudy.

Tuesday: 50/75.  Partly cloudy. PM shower.

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