Saturday, October 4, 2014

10/4: Chilly and Blustery Today; Patchy Frost Possible Tonight

10/4 12pm Update
The cold front has pushed through, taking with it clouds and showers off the eastern seaboard.  Temperatures across the Valley have warmed into the lower 60s, but don't expect them to get any higher through the rest of the day.  It definitely feels chillier with westerly/northwesterly breezes gusting up to 25 mph at times keeping wind-chills in the 40s.  There are a few upslope showers across parts of West Virginia where there have even been a few reports of convective ice pellets mixing in with the rain with temperatures in the mid 40s.  These will stay west of the mountains this afternoon before dying down this evening.

Freeze warnings have been issued for parts of the Allegheny Highlands tonight with temperatures dropping below freezing, even upper 20s in some location.  Here in the Valley, no frost/freeze advisory of any kind has gone up with lows expected to bottom out in the mid 30s.  Some areas of patchy frost will still be possible.

From Last Night
10/4 2:15am
Forecast Discussion
The cold front currently draped just to our west is set to push through our area over the next several hours.  It will be to our east by daybreak allowing clouds to break up and temperatures during the day to remain cool (low 60s for highs) as gusty westerly winds usher in colder air.  Winds dying down this evening + clear skies will lead to ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight.  Since the gfs and nam continue to be pretty bullish on the extent of the cold, looks like Ill need to bump tonight's expected lows down a few degrees.  It'll probably be close enough to freezing to go ahead and protect any sensitive outdoor vegetation...especially across the typically colder sheltered valleys and western ridges.  Temperatures gradually rebound back towards normal early next week before more rain chances with another system late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
00z GFS Saturday Night Lows
Shenandoah Valley 5-day forecast
Today: 61.  Partly cloudy during the morning giving way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon.  Breezy with westerly winds gusting 15-20 mph.  Watch out for patchy areas of frost tonight.

Sunday: 35/60.  Mostly sunny and cool...some patch areas of morning frost.  

Monday: 40/71.  Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  

Tuesday: 70/51.  Building clouds.  PM showers.

Wednesday: 49/69.  AM showers.  Partly cloudy in the afternoon.

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