Thursday, October 2, 2014

Nice Day Tomorrow; Big Chill on Way This Weekend

10/2 1230am
Forecast Discussion:
Now that we're into the month of October, here's a look back at some September stats for Harrisonburg.  Overall, the thing that really stands out is how dry we were.  Hopefully we can improve that this fall.

Temperature departure: +1.0 degrees
Precipitation: 0.73"
Precipitation departure: -2.81"
Warmest temp of the month: 92 on September 3rd
Coldest temp of the month: 39 on September 23/24

Today will be comfortable and our last nice day before the weekend cool down.  A strong cold front will approach the area Friday which will lead to a line of gusty showers during the evening.  These will continue overnight before ending during the early morning hours on Saturday.  It looks like we should be able to squeeze upwards of 0.25" out of this..maybe a few isolated amounts up to 0.5" if we're lucky.
Things will quickly dry out Saturday with northwesterly breezes which will usher in the coldest air-mass we've seen so far this season.  Highs Saturday will be stuck in the 60s, truly putting the fall feel in the air.  Many areas will drop into the upper 30s Saturday night.  The GFS is actually showing even colder temperatures, with subfreezing temperatures widespread across the Shenandoah Valley.  I think this is well overdone and am leaning more towards the more reasonable Euro guidance shown below.
12z Euro Saturday Night Lows

A trough will remain in place but slowly relax a bit as we head into the first part of next week.  This will allow temperatures to rebound back to around average.  There will be a piece of energy that will drop out of Canada and try to develop as it rounds the base of the eastern trough, bringing more shower potential mid next week

Shenandoah Valley 5-Day Forecast
Today: 78. Partly cloudy.

Friday: 55/76.  Clouds increasing during the afternoon.  Showers likely during the evening (after 7pm) and continuing into the overnight.

Saturday: 55/65. Early morning showers, clearing out by mid-morning.  Partly cloudy and much cooler.

Sunday: 39/64. Very chilly Sunday AM, some western ridges will drop close to freezing.  Partly cloudy.

Monday: 44/72.  Partly cloudy with rebounding temperatures.

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