Friday, July 25, 2014

Pleasant Start to the Weekend; Severe Storms Possible Sunday

7/25 7pm
High pressure in wake of yesterday's frontal passage kept things pretty nice today with lower humidity levels and high temperatures generally in the low 80s.  Expect much of the same Saturday (although a bit warmer) leading to another beautiful day.  This summer continues to spoil us.

Today's Surface Map
Our next big weather maker will be a low pressure area that swings across the Great Lakes into the northeast late this weekend.  We'll be in the warm sector out ahead of it's trailing cold front; helping to produce an environment that'll be suitable for some severe weather.

Surface Map Forecast Sunday 7am
There will be a piece of upper level energy that pivots around the base of the trough over the east, acting as trigger for storm development.
500mb Vorticity Sunday 11am

Based on current model predictions, it looks like there's potential for a few long lived MCS' (Mesoscale Convective Systems) to form as shown by the 18z high res nam below.  The greatest threat with these is usually damaging winds, lightning, and very heavy rain.  There's still a bit of uncertainty concerning how everything comes together.  I'll have another update tomorrow.

Reflectivity 8pm Sunday

The front will push through late Sunday night and set up a very nice start to next week: dry with yet another return of well below average temperatures.  What did I say about this summer spoiling us?

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