Sunday, July 13, 2014

7/13 Blog: Hot, Very Stormy Start to the Week; Cool and Very Nice by Midweek

Sunday (7/13) 9pm Blog
It was another hot, humid day with lots of tropical Gulf air being transported north ahead of our next cold front.  Scattered thunderstorm activity developed out ahead of it this afternoon which moved through parts of the Valley.  Some of this will continue into the overnight hours although there should be a weakening trend as we lose daylight heating.
Surface Map Depiction for 8 pm Sunday
The front will continue to inch towards the area on Monday allowing more widespread showers and storms to develop during the day.  The greatest threat for severe weather will be along and east of the Blue Ridge (although can't entirely be ruled out across the Valley) where early-day sunshine will allow for greatest destabilization of the atmosphere.  Here storms will be capable of producing damaging winds with very heavy rains.  Definitely watch out for some flash flooding as storms will be slow moving.  This seems to be the theme around here lately.
18z NAM Radar Reflectivity for 5pm Monday
This front will be slow to completely clear the area so a few storms may return Tuesday.  These shouldn't be nearly as widespread or organized than what we see Monday.  The cold front will finally push off the coast by late Tuesday night allowing much drier, cooler air to return for a few days by mid-week.

Surface Map Forecast for 8am Wednesday
This is looking to be a near repeat of the extremely nice weather we had over the 4th of July weekend: low humidity, below average temperatures, and lots of sunshine.  The bulk of this deep trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the country through the end of the week before slowly retreating this weekend.  Below is a 2 meter temperature departure from average anomaly map for the next 5 days.  You can see we will be below average, but the heart of the cooler air will remain over the northern plains/midwest area.  Several days of upper 70s/low 80s for highs will surely feel nice before more typical July weather returns this weekend into next week.

Shenandoah Valley Forecast
Monday: High 90. Low 70. 80% afternoon/evening thunderstorms...some will be severe with damaging winds and very heavy rain.
Tuesday: High 86. Low 68. 60% scattered thunderstorms.
Wednesday: High 79. Low 58.  0% chance of rain.  Mostly sunny. Very nice with low humidity.

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