Sunday, April 13, 2014

Warm Sunday; Rainy Monday-Tuesday; Late-Season Frost Possible Mid-Week

Tuesday (4/15/14) 11:30am Update
The first line of showers and storms pushed through overnight bringing plenty of heavy rain and gusty winds.  There's a bit of a break behind this first line across much of western and central Virginia.  There will be some redevelopment with the cold front as it swings through later this afternoon.  Two big things worth watching the rest of the day:

1) Still keeping an eye on any clearing that might help fuel some stronger storms ahead of the frontal passage in south-eastern VA.  The Storm Prediction Center continues to have this area in their "slight risk" for severe storms.

2) Cold air working in behind the front may catch up with moisture to provide a brief period of snow on the backend.  The best shot will be across the higher elevations of West Virginia where some light accumulations will be possible, but can't rule out a few wet flakes mixing in before ending as far east as the western valleys of Virginia.
Surface Map 11:05am 

End Update

Monday (4/14/14) 2:45pm Update
The Storm Prediction Center just issued their day 2 convective outlook for the chance of severe storms Tuesday.  The best shot will be across portions of central and southeast Virginia where there may be enough late morning/afternoon sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere out ahead of the frontal passage.  The biggest threat with this will be bowing line segments capable of producing damaging winds, although a quick tornadic spin up will be possible.  Below is the SPC day 2 outlook and the latest 12z WRF-NMM predicted radar.
SPC Day 2 Outlook
WRF-Model Radar
End Update
Sunday (4/13/14) 11:30am 
As of 11am Sunday morning, temperatures have already climbed well into the 70s across most of the state. Gusty southerly breezes out ahead of our next cold front will continue bringing in lots of warm air.  Day time highs should push 80 just about everywhere with some mid 80s possible across parts of the piedmont.

11am temperatures via MesoWest

A cold front will approach the area during the day on Monday, producing some showers and maybe a few thunderstorms Monday night.  These should start across far western VA by late afternoon before reaching the coast by dawn or so on Tuesday.  The actual cold front won't swing through until Tuesday afternoon, bringing with it a line of moderate to heavy rain and a few storms.  Conditions don't appear very favorable for widespread severe weather although it can't be completely ruled out across portions of central and southeast Virginia.  There may be enough clearing in-between the pre-frontal showers and the line associated with the cold front to destabilize the atmosphere enough to help get some stronger storms going.  I circled the area to watch for this below.
00z Euro for Tuesday 2pm via AccuPro
The front will clear the area by Tuesday night allowing much cooler air to work in for the middle part of the week.  Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be back to slightly below normal with daytime highs back in the 50s and 60s.  There's also potential for a late season frost both Tuesday and Wednesday nights with temperatures dropping down very close to freezing.  The best chance for this of course will be across areas along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains although it wouldn't surprise me to even see some patchy frost make it as far east as piedmont areas just east of the mountains (Danville, Lynchburg, Charlottesville).  This isn't unusual as most of these areas don't see their last freeze until well into May.  Be sure to protect any sensitive vegetation!
Average Last Freeze via Garden Harvest Supply

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