Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Cool Wednesday; Warmth Returns for the Weekend

Wednesday (4/9) 1:30am:
I think it is now safe to say that spring is here and winter is officially over.  By that I mean I don't think any part of Virginia outside favored upslope areas sees another snowflake. There probably aren't many complaints about that as just about everyone finished above average in terms of snowfall for the season.  Today (Wednesday) will be yet another day of northerly winds that will help keep temperatures on the cool side.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across central and southeast Virginia; upper 50s to low 60s across areas west of the Blue Ridge.  Thursday will mark a change in wind direction to more out of the west and southwest that will provide progressively warmer conditions each day through the rest of the week.  Weekend temperatures look to climb into the 70s for just about everyone outside the higher elevations which may end up stuck in the upper 60s.  A few locations (primarily across the piedmont) may even crack 80 on Sunday.
850mb Chart (Wednesday left/Thursday Right) via AccuPro
  Precipitation wise, there doesn't appear to be anything significant through the weekend.  There may be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop along the mountains this (Wednesday) afternoon and evening.  Not expecting these to be a big deal as most locations stay dry.  We will then have to watch a frontal boundary that is expected to stall across the northern mid-Atlantic on Friday.  This may drive far enough south to produce some light showers Friday evening.  The better shot will be the farther north you go (From Harrisonburg to Winchester to DC) as precipitation looks to fizzle out a bit south of there.
GFS Total Precip 2pm Friday-2pm Saturday via AccuPro
Looking ahead to next week, a low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern plains and track northeast into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region.  It's trailing cold front will push through during the later part of the day on Monday into early Tuesday producing the chance for more showers and thunderstorms.  This will certainly be our next best shot at widespread substantial rainfall.

System for Early Next Week via the WPC

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