Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Today is repeat of yesterday; still keeping an eye on what is now tropical depression 1

(Posted Wednesday 5/6 5am)

After some patchy, dense morning fog, expect lots of afternoon sunshine with highs climbing up towards 80 degrees. It'll be a near repeat of yesterday with a few scattered showers and storms popping up in the mountains late this afternoon. Won't be surprised to see a few of these work their way into the Shenandoah Valley. Best chance will be between 3-8 pm.  

Still watching what is now tropical depression 1 down off the southern coast of Florida. A low pressure center is expected to form under this cluster of showers and storms before slowly drifting north off the Carolina coast. It's still up for debate whether this becomes our first named storm of the Atlantic tropical season---would need a defined surface center and maximum sustained winds of at least 40 mph. Impacts will be the same regardless. Coastal areas of the carolinas can expect gusty rain squalls to start coming ashore as early as late tonight. Due to how slow this system will move (may even stall/make a loop), persistent onshore flow will lead to areas of beach erosion---especially across southern North Carolina. It may very well keep spinning across the same area through the weekend before getting picked up and carried away by a cold front early next week...this may end up helping enhance rainfall to a degree here in the Valley. 



Image: gfs model for Friday afternoon

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