Sunday, April 19, 2015

Scattered Strong Storms Possible Monday PM

(Posted Sunday 4/19 8:30 pm)

Expect periods of rain (heavy at times) to continue through the overnight before tapering off Monday morning.  We'll see a few breaks in cloud cover by early afternoon ahead of a cold front approaching the area.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along this front by late day (4-8 pm looks like the action time for the Shenandoah Valley).  Although not everyone will see activity...CAPE values in the 500-750 j/kg range and 0-6 km shear around 30-35 knots will allow any of these storms to become strong to severe with strong winds and small hail the main threats.  As is often the case, severe weather chances will be greater under higher instability values east of the Blue Ridge.  While not expecting widespread severe weather in the Valley, be sure to pay attention to any watches/warnings that may issued.  

4km high resolution NAM for Monday Evening

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