Thursday, March 5, 2015

Final Call

(3/6 1:30pm Update)

Another storm is in the books. Pretty solid snow totals up and down the Shenandoah Valley with generally anywhere from 5-11" (a few locally higher reports). A nice warm up is on tap for this weekend with most locations back into the 50s. This warmth will stick around through next week with a few southern stream systems each bringing the chance for rain. It's still too early to write winter off (way too often we see flakes late March/early April) but consider this the homestretch. We'll be complaining about heat and humidity before you know it.
Shenandoah Valley Snow Totals
Lexington: 6.0"
Covington: 6.0"
Monterey: 6.0"
Fishersville: 5.6"
Harrisonburg: 6.0"
Basye: 6.5"
Front Royal: 9.5"
Stephens City: 9.0"
Berryville: 8.1"
Winchester: 11.0"
Other Virginia Totals
Blacksburg: 4.2"
Roanoke: 1.9"
Lyhnchburg: 2.5"
Charlottesville: 5.5"
Richmond: 0.3"
Fredericksburg: 5.5"
VA Beach: 0.0"

End Update

(3/5 1015am Update)
Rain/Snow line via dual pol line matching up well with latest 850mb temperatures....slowly working its way east across southwest Virginia
Correlation Coefficient via Dual Pol
850 mb temperatures 
End update

(3/5 6am Update)
Good morning!
Cold air is taking its time trickling east over the mountains. This has pushed the snow-changeover back a few hours (although I'm already seeing reports of snow across the northern Shenandoah Valley and higher elevations). It's certainly still coming for the rest of the Valley and conditions will go down quick once it occurs. Other than this timing issue, forecast amounts are still on track....I'm expecting flakes anytime now.

End update

(Posted 3/4 7pm)
Here's my final call.  I apologize for lack of discussion but I'm currently riding (not driving) up I-81 for spring break.... Yes, a Shenandoah Valley spring snow storm is great reason to start break a few days early.

Anyways, you'll notice a few minor changes from yesterday's first call.  I know certain models have more in some areas while others have less.  After pouring over all the data and throwing in a bit of climatology and personal opinion, this is what I'm coming up with.


I'll be up all night tracking it come in (rain should changeover in the Valley after midnight..1-4am or so). From the radar image above, you can see how juicy this storm ready for a rapid change over to heavy, wet snow...great for packing...terrible for driving on. As always, feel free to share reports and pictures.  I'll have a full recap once everything's all said and done tomorrow night.   

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