Storm Recap
Here's a look at the storm total snow-map based off reports sent into the National Weather Service. Amounts varied greatly based on exact elevation. For example, rain started mixing with and changing over to snow around 6 am Monday morning up at the Massanutten Ski Resort (around 2,600 feet up) while remaining rain at the base of the mountain in McGaheysville (1,200 feet or so) until closer to 10 am. Check out the picture below showing just how sharp this rain/snow cutoff was. It should also be noted that after the clipper brought a period of snow for much of northern Virginia Monday morning, we did see wrap around bands of snow develop during the afternoon and evening hours...continuing overnight and into the day on Tuesday for some. This led to additional light accumulations across the Valley and northern Virginia and even anywhere from a coating to a few inches across central and southeast portions of the state. It was nice to see this work out for many areas that have seen next to nothing so far this year. Virginia Beach even got in on the action. Here's some final totals across the state:
Staunton: Trace
Harrisonburg: 1.5"
Bergton: 4.5"
Front Royal: 1.5"
Woodstock: 2.6"
Linden: 4.0"
Winchester: 2.7"
Charlottesville: Trace
Arlington: 2.2"
VA Beach: 0.5"
Poquoson: 0.5"
Norfolk: 1.0"
KRIC (Richmond): 0.2"
Short Pump: 2.0"
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| Past 24 Hour Snowfall Map Based off Reports Sent into the National Weather Service |
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| Accumulation vs no Accumulation thanks to sharp rain/snow ine (taken in northern Augusta County) |
A Look Ahead at the Rest of the Week
With this storm out of the way, I'm already being asked lots of questions and seeing tons of buzz about a big snow coming next weekend. I can't say I understand the hype at this point. Here's how I see the rest of the week shaping up:
1) A return to very cold conditions (Tuesday night/Wednesday night): High pressure working in from the Great Lakes will help lead to a very chilly next two nights. Mostly clear skies combined with existing snow cover should allow temperatures to drop into the teens across most of the Valley.
2) A light rain/snow mix possible Thursday (better chances across the western mountains): Another clipper is expected to swing southeast out of Alberta and effect the area on Thursday. Unlike this past one, the main energy won't make it south of the Great Lakes. It will still drag a weak cold front through the area providing the chance for some light rain/snow showers...especially on the upslope side of the western facing mountains where a coating to an inch will be possible. Some of this activity could continue into the day on Friday Once again, best shot will be in the western mountains...not much if anything for the Shenandoah Valley.
3) A reinforcing shot of even colder air Friday-Saturday: Behind this cold front, another Canadian air mass will work in bringing more cold across the east. We may struggle to get above freezing both Friday and Saturday with overnight lows dipping into the single digits not out of the question. This combined with breezy conditions could lead to sub zero wind chills.
4) Then we watch the late weekend system: There does appear to be a system worth watching for late in the weekend into early next week. Models are in pretty good agreement that we see energy dig into the southwest and form a system across the southern plains. It is the storm track from here that will determine who sees what. Right now, it looks like our late week high pressure gets shunted well east off the coast while a second high over Canada arrives just a bit too late to settle into a favorable snowstorm position for Virginia. This leaves us with a storm that very well may cut to out west. Although the aforementioned late weekend cold air mass will be in its moderation phase, there very well could be enough left over cold air to lead to one of those wintry mix to rain type scenarios. While this would be the solution I'd lean towards at this time, it's not completely out of the question we see a weaker system keep a more southerly track. This would keep us colder and lead to an overrunning event where snow is the more dominant precipitation type. Bottom line: this does look to be our next widespread shot at wintry weather...I just don't see it as a big snow storm at this time. Check back for updates as details of the setup become more clear.
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