Friday, December 26, 2014

Friday 12/26: Shenandoah Valley Forecast

Friday, December 26th 6am

Today: Sunny.  Highs 53-57.

Tonight: Mostly clear.  Lows 26-30.

Saturday: Clouds moving in late in the day.  Highs 56-60.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with showers developing in the afternoon.  Highs 54-58.

Monday: Morning rain tapering off during the afternoon.  Highs 41-45.

Discussion: A large area of high pressure will be centered over the area today and tomorrow leading to lots of sun and temperatures a good 10-15 degrees above average.
6z-GFS Departure from 30 year Average Highs for Saturday
A weak cold front will then swing through Sunday and stall just south of the area Sunday night into Monday.  A wave of low pressure will develop and ride along it Sunday night into Monday bringing precipitation chances back into the area.  The question has been whether cold air intruding into our area north of the front would get here in time to change any of this rain to wintry weather.  Right now, the answer to this looks to be no...with the exception of ending as a few wet flakes towards the Mason Dixon line and highest elevations.  Below is the forecast mean sea level pressure map for Monday.  Although we'll have cold air working in on our side of the stalled front...the source of this cold air (a Canadian high) will be centered in Alberta, Canada which is too far west.  So another cold rain it is.  This high will eventually work across the country during the middle part of next week returning dry and seasonably cold weather.  Take advantage of these next two super nice days!
00z gfs Mean Sea Level Pressure map for Monday

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