One More Day of Cool Wedge;Then Brief Warm-Up

After a very warm first 7 days of September, Fall weather has returned in drastic fashion.  This has been largely in part to a cold front that pushed through late Saturday before stalling out across the Carolinas.  We will have a bit of a warm up mid week before yet another strong cold front brings in more fall-like air for the weekend.  I'll highlight below how our next week is shaping up:

Surface Map Early Tuesday AM

1) The combination of a low developing along a stalled boundary draped across the Carolinas and high pressure edging south out of New England has led to an onshore, generally-easterly flow over the past few days.  This has set up the classic wedge-type pattern with lots of cooler air banked up against the spine of the Appalachians.  This moisture brought in off the Atlantic helped lead to lots of clouds, periods of fog, and areas of light drizzle throughout the day Monday.  The bulk of the moisture stayed closer to the coast where 2-5" of rain was common across the Hampton Roads area with isolated locations reporting as much as 10".  Yikes! That's enough to cause some serious flooding issues down there.  Today will be very similar: lots of clouds, cool (upper 60s to low 70s), with periods of light showers and drizzle.  The majority of the heaviest rains will once again stay across the SE VA area as the low moves up the coast.

Visible Satellite Image Monday Afternoon

2) This pattern will break down towards Wednesday as the low departs and winds become more south-westerly out ahead of our next cold front.  Skies will clear and temperatures will become more seasonable, warming back into the low 80s Both Wednesday and Thursday.  These will be the two warmest days of the week.

MAX Temperatures Wednesday

3) Our next significant weather maker will be with a frontal passage late in the day Thursday.  There will likely be a line of showers and storms that move through sometime during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Predicted Radar Reflectivity Thursday PM

This front will also pack quite a punch of cooler air (it has already been responsible for an early season snow event in parts of Alberta and mountainous terrain of Montana). Temperatures will drop back below average for Friday into the weekend (low to mid 70s).  The bulk of the colder air should remain across the plains, but cool none-the-less.  Fortunately, this looks like a sunny-cool vs the dreary-cool we've seen the past few days.

Day 2-7 Departure from Average Temperature

Looking ahead at the rest of September, I think we'll stay in this up-and-down temperature pattern as we see numerous cold fronts of varying intensities drop down out of Canada.  All in all, pretty normal for this time of year.   These cold shots will gradually become colder and the warm shots will be less impressive as we inch towards the wonderful season of winter.