Thursday, September 11, 2014

Cold Front to Bring Afternoon Showers/Storms; A Few May Be Strong

9/11 Update:  
Today we'll be tracking a typical-early-Fall cold front pushing towards our area.  It will start off very nice with southerly breezes and temperatures quickly warming into the mid 80s.  Clouds will really begin to increase by late morning as the front makes its approach.  Latest guidance shows showers and storms breaking out across the Valley during the early afternoon hours (my guess would be 1-3pm).  
21 SREF Members + SREF MEAN (bottom right) for Thursdays Early Afternoon (2pm)
This system has a history of producing a bit of severe weather (even several reported tornadoes across parts of Ohio).  Fortunately, it will be running into a layer of more stable air, limiting the extent of severe weather expected in the mid-Atlantic.  With that being said, can't completely rule out a few damaging wind reports even with the marginal instability.  I believe the greatest chance of that will be south and east of the Shenandoah Valley across portions of the south central VA area where a few individual cells may try to blossom out ahead of the main line under a nose of higher cape(atmospheric energy) values tomorrow evening.  The 00z high resolution NAM is picking up on some of this potential on the predicted simulated infrared satellite.
00z NAM IR Satellite 8pm Thursday

The front should clear the Valley by late tomorrow night, setting the stage for a very nice, cool Friday (low to mid 70s).  This nice weather will be short lived as more showers are expected during the day Saturday.

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