6/30: Storm Chances Continue; Update on Invest 91L (Soon to be Arthur?)

Monday (6/30) 9:30pm

It was another pretty nice summer day with temperatures right around average.  There were a few upslope, slow moving thunderstorms scattered around, but most of these stayed in the mountains.

With high pressure working its way east off the coast, southerly breezes will really increase the heat and humidity heading into Tuesday and Wednesday.  Each day will provide the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  A cold front will swing through Thursday giving us a more widespread shot at storms.  4th of July weekend is still looking very nice with lots of sun and temperatures slightly below average (low 80s).

Shenandoah Valley Next 3 Days

Tuesday: High 92. Low 69.  40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

Wednesday: High 91. Low 69. 50% chance of late day thunderstorms

Thursday: High 85. Low 65.  70% chance of thunderstorms.

As for Invest 91L, it continues to spin off the coast of Florida....slowly drifting south at about 5 mph.  It's expected to begin its loop towards the north again sometime tomorrow into Wednesday.

Latest tropical models still take it right up the coast, possibly making landfall somewhere across the North Carolina Outer Banks by late week.

Here's a graph showing just how strong some models are indicating Invest 91L will eventually become.  Most of them have it at least to tropical storm strength (middle shaded box), with several even getting it to a category 1 hurricane.  It will likely be upgraded to at least a tropical depression sometime late tonight or during the day Tuesday.

I'm leaning towards this becoming our first named tropical storm in the Atlantic (it's name will be Arthur), but don't think it will get quite to hurricane strength. Below is the 12z Euro model depiction for 2am Friday morning.  You can see the cold front mentioned earlier swinging through our area bringing a round of storms.  This will help pick up Invest 91L (what may be Arthur by this time) and shoot it up the coast.  Since most of the heaviest rain and strongest winds are usually on the right side of tropical systems, the worst conditions will likely stay offshore.  Regardless...rough surf, some coastal flooding, gusty winds, and heavy rains along the coast will result.  Keep this in mind if you're planning on visiting any east coast beach locations this holiday weekend.

12z Euro 2am Friday via AccuPro