Mid-Week East Coast Storm Update

There's finally starting to be a bit more agreement in regards to next week's storm.  First off, the initial overrunning band for late Monday night into Tuesday morning looks like it's going to stay across the southern Tennessee Valley/Alabama/Georgia/Carolinas.  There were signs a few days ago that this may try to push up into the southern 1/3rd of Virginia.  We next turn our attention to mid-week.  There's going to be a piece of Pacific energy coming into California tonight before swinging south across Texas and into the Mississippi Valley.  At the same time, a separate northern stream shortwave will diving in out of Canada through the northern plains.  The big question has been whether these two would meet up and phase to bring an east coast storm.  It's looking more and more likely that they will, developing a low pressure center along the northern Gulf Wednesday morning before tracking it somewhere up along the eastern seaboard during the day Wednesday into Thursday.

Weather Prediction Center's Day 4 (Thursday Morning) Sea Level Pressure Forecast

The next question will be how far east/west does this low track.  That will mean all the difference determining where the both the rain/snow line sets up, and how far west precipitation gets.  I'm not ready to make a first call on this just yet, but anywhere from far southwest VA, to Roanoke and the New River Valley to Lynchburg/Danville and up through the Shenandoah Valley/Charlottesville and DC look to be in a good place to see snow.  It may even stretch as far east as Richmond depending on how far east the low tracks.  I'll wait to see the Sunday afternoon and night model runs before making a first call Monday morning.