12/8 and 12/9 icestorm (and nova snow) Recap
Here's a brief overview of what the 12/8 Sunday storm brought to the area. The ice-storm knocked out power to just over 114,000 customers for a time, with over 70,000 of these occurring across northern Virginia where .25" ice reports were widespread with some areas receiving up to nearly a half of an inch. The reports below only show totals from the National Weather Service in Sterling VA, although anywhere from .1"- .25 of an inch of ice was reported widespread throughout the Blacksburg/Roanoke areas and as far east as Greater Richmond . The forecast ice totals worked out well. Recent warm temperatures, marginal surface temps for many, and the best lift setting up too far north all combined to keep this from being a historic/crippling storm. It was still a major ice storm, arguably the most significant event on a widespread level that Virginia has seen in a few years. On the other hand, areas along and north of I66 in NOVA received much more snow than what my "up to 2 inches" map had called for. The colder air in the upper levels simply hung on way longer than what I was expecting. Areas of Frederick, Warren, Clark, Loudon, and Shenandoah counties received 3+ inches of snow, with as much as 6.5" being reported in the city of Winchester. Busts like this can happen when a few degrees difference in any of the lowest 10,000 feet of the atmosphere change a "up to 2" of snow to a .25" of ice forecast" into pretty much all snow with accumulations of a half of foot.
VIRGINIA SNOWFALL
...CLARKE COUNTY...
1 NNW BERRYVILLE 5.8 820 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
...CULPEPER COUNTY...
6 N RIXEYVILLE 1.4 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
3 N RIXEYVILLE 1.2 600 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
3 N VIENNA 1.5 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
2 SSW RESTON 1.4 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
2 W FALLS CHURCH 1.3 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
1 W VIENNA 1.2 830 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
2 S MCLEAN 1.1 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
2 SE MCLEAN 1.0 800 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
VIENNA 1.0 700 AM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 SSE MCLEAN 1.0 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
...FAUQUIER COUNTY...
6 S WARRENTON 2.0 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
OPAL 2.0 700 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE
6 SSE WARRENTON 1.5 800 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
...FREDERICK COUNTY...
5 NE WINCHESTER 6.5 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
2 E STEPHENS CITY 5.5 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
SE MIDDLETOWN 4.3 745 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
7 SE WINCHESTER 4.0 700 AM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER
...HIGHLAND COUNTY...
1 SW MILL GAP 0.5 600 AM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER
...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
2 WNW MIDDLEBURG 3.0 726 AM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER
...MADISON COUNTY...
HAYWOOD 1.5 412 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
...PAGE COUNTY...
1 SW LURAY 2.0 900 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER
...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...
1 SSW WOODBRIDGE 1.1 605 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
...SHENANDOAH COUNTY...
4 N STRASBURG 5.3 700 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
...SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...
5 SSW FREDERICKSBURG 0.5 600 AM 12/09 COCORAHS
...WARREN COUNTY...
FRONT ROYAL 2.5 600 AM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER
VIRGINIA ICE
...ALBEMARLE COUNTY... 2 W CHARLOTTESVILLE 0.20 800 AM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER ...CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... 1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL 0.10 132 AM 12/09 BROADCAST MEDIA ...CLARKE COUNTY... 1 NNW BERRYVILLE 0.19 820 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...CULPEPER COUNTY... 1 ESE AMISSVILLE 0.25 900 AM 12/09 COCORAHS ...FAIRFAX COUNTY... 1 E OAKTON 0.25 719 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 SE CHANTILLY 0.25 955 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 W FALLS CHURCH 0.19 800 AM 12/09 COCORAHS 1 SE THE I66 AND I49 0.15 845 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE 2 WSW WEST SPRINGFIE 0.12 845 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...FAUQUIER COUNTY... 3 NNW WOOLSEY 0.30 735 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER WARRENTON 0.25 800 AM 12/09 PUBLIC 1 ESE BEALETON 0.25 848 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...FREDERICK COUNTY... 1 S STEPHENSON 0.25 800 AM 12/09 COCORAHS 2 NNE NINEVEH 0.25 455 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...LOUDOUN COUNTY... 3 WSW ASHBURN 0.25 700 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE 3 SSW ARCOLA 0.25 1226 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE 2 WNW MIDDLEBURG 0.12 726 AM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER LEESBURG 0.10 231 AM 12/09 COUNTY EMRG MGMT COUNTRYSIDE 0.10 220 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE ...MADISON COUNTY... HAYWOOD 0.25 412 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...ORANGE COUNTY... 1 NW BARBOURSVILLE 0.10 630 AM 12/09 COCORAHS ...PAGE COUNTY... 1 SW LURAY 0.25 900 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY... 3 SSW MANASSAS 0.19 626 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...STAFFORD COUNTY... HARTWOOD 0.25 855 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...WARREN COUNTY... 1 WSW KARO 0.25 605 AM 12/09 TRAINED SPOTTER12/10 StormI've been watching for the potential for another round of wintry weather to work through much of the area during the day on Tuesday. I originally figured that most of this precipitation would be light, and temperatures would struggle to get low enough to provide much in the way of anything more than light accumulations across the higher elevations of western and northern parts of Virginia. After the first system moved through and has laid down decent snowpack across nova, it's looking more and more likely that this system is going to be colder than previously modeled. I woke up this morning to winter storm watches issued on a line from Staunton to Charlottesville to DC and points north calling for 5+" of snowfall Tuesday. The overnight and early morning model guidance came in colder, hence the changes. Looking at 230pm temperatures across the state, you can see that areas that have had sun break through the cloud cover have warmed significantly, while the more cloudy areas are still very chilly. Areas across northern Virginia which have both clouds and snowpack are particularly cold.After looking at the early morning and afternoon guidance, here's what I'm thinking for tomorrow. Precipitation should break out across south west Virginia by day break and spread west to east throughout the day. It will begin as rain in many areas, but quickly change over, especially the farther north you go.
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