It didn't take long for chatter to get going about the potential for a significant east coast snow storm next week. Although models (most notably the European) had a few runs that showed such an event, the problem was that it was combining a lot of different wild cards just right that even in this current snow-lover's-problematic-pattern, hefty snow totals were being output up and down the east coast. The flow across the United States is simply too progressive, meaning upper level flow is too quick to allow any type of trough to really dig in and allow a big storm to develop across the east coast. Of course sometimes these wild cards do come together just right to produce a big storm; which is why with many of the models showing something, it was worth keeping an eye on. Now that we're under the 96 hour (4 day) mark, it's becoming clear that this won't be the case this time.
Current Thoughts
A strong arctic front is going to pass through the area late Monday night and into Tuesday. I think there will be enough moisture to provide some rain/snow showers, especially in the mountains where light accumulations will be possible. Although moisture looks to be limited, a few of these may bleed over the mountains into lower eastern locations. With the trough axis hanging around somewhere just off shore, will have to watch to see if any light precip is thrown back into the Carolinas and Virginia if a low finally does try to develop off off the coast. Even that looks to be a big-if right now.Behind the front, it's going to feel like winter for a few days with highs not getting out of the 30s in the mountains and 40s elsewhere. Tuesday night has potential to be coldest night thus far this fall.
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