Cool-Wet Weekend/Summer Warmth Returning Next Week

A quick update on Invest 92 currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula: it looks much less organized than it did yesterday over the waters of the western Caribbean as convection is getting strung out.  The National Hurricane Center has downed it to only a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours (60% over the next 5 days).  It should move back over open waters of the Gulf on Friday where additional strengthening may occur.

The latest evening 18z model tracks with this are looking farther west than they were yesterday.  Once again, until a center of defined circulation pops up over the Gulf, models probably won't have a good handle on it.

Regardless of exactly how strong and where Invest 92 heads, there's model agreement that some tropical moisture is going to work its way into our area.  The current trough over the east coast that has kept the weather cool over the past few days is going to develop into a cutoff low over the Missouri Valley this weekend.  This is going to allow rain to stream up the eastern seaboard.  You can actually see how some of the moisture with Invest 92 makes it all the way up into the Mid Atlantic looking at the 500mb forecast vorticity for this weekend.

This is going to lead to a pretty cool and wet weekend for most of Virginia, especially for the southern half of the state, although I think everywhere will at least see showers (less farther north/west).  The Euro has up to 1-2" across some areas. The upper level low and trough over the east coast should finally get kicked out by next week, allowing some warmer summer weather to return.  It still doesn't look like any true summer heat, but its not going to feel like early fall like it has over the past few days either.

Last but not least there's Invest 93 (now tropical storm Erin).  It's still way out there and should remain a minimal tropical storm for the next several days.  It's something to keep an eye on down the road, but it's still well over a week away from any impact to the US.