Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Tropical Depression 5- soon to be Ernesto?

As of 5pm this evening (8/1), the National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 99L to Tropical Depression 5.  Latest infrared images show a bit weaker system than earlier today, but that's expected with a tropical system as it goes through phases.  As of 8pm, stats on TD 5 from the National Hurricane Center:
Location: 12.4°N 49.8°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Latest National Hurricane Center track and intensity:

 Here are the latest spaghetti model plots:

And latest intensity forecasts:

I'm definitely no expert on tropical weather, but I don't think it becomes a hurricane anywhere in the Caribbean (Gulf -possibly)...just a strong tropical storm. I know some of the latest data (especially the EURO) has a more southernly-towards the yucatan peninsula track, but the CMC was one of the first models onboard with the idea of the storm....and it still takes it towards the Bahamas....which i think is a bit too after correcting the difference...this is what i got...also some of the statistical models are showing this northern track..statistical models don't use any physics, and just use current steering currents ..its usually ok to use these if the storm is south of 20 degrees latitude...which it is.
Here's my forecast:

There is dry air to the south of this system along the coast of South America...and wind sheer to the north because of a low pressure.  Right now, I think Tropical Depression 5 splits these two hurdles, but minor effects from both limit it from becoming a hurricane.  Here is what I mean:

Another update tomorrow night

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