(Posted Monday 7/13 6:30am)
First off, a very heavy rain band has set up over parts of Shenandoah, Page, and Warren counties dumping 1-2+" of rain. A flash flood warning has been issued...be careful if you're driving through that area this AM.
On a related note, a ring of fire pattern has set up and will keep things active over the next few days. Upper level disturbances continue to ride northwesterly flow aloft around a large area of high pressure parked over the southern plains.
Although it looks like the majority of severe weather will stay towards the better instability both to the south and west of the Shenandoah Valley, expect periods of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday---any of which will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall. Northwest flow + clouds + showers will keep high temperatures slightly below average in the low to mid 80s. Looks like this pattern will break down late week as ridging builds. Highs will heat back up towards 90---hot but nothing unusual for this time of year.