(Updated 5:30pm)
We have two main players impacting our weather over the next 36 hours...a cold front diving southeast through the Ohio Valley and a coastal low developing across the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately for snow lovers, there won't be any interaction between the two until both are well off to our east.
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| 4:31 pm radar showing both systems |
With that said, each will bring minor impacts to the area:
1) Cold frontal passage: Although this doesn't have much moisture to work with, it should at least produce some snow showers late tonight into tomorrow across the western facing slopes where light accumulations are likely. Most precipitation should dry up as it down slopes across the eastern side of the mountains but even here I can't rule out a few flurries/sprinkles. As snow deprived as many areas in Virginia have been, upslope areas of West Virginia continue to cash in on these northern stream systems. Canaan Valley Resort is already up to 83" for the season. Expect this front to bring the return of gusty winds and much cooler temperatures...won't feel nice after being spoiled with widespread 50s today.
2) Southern branch system: There is another system developing across the Gulf of Mexico which has a lot more moisture to work with. The bulk of this will push off east into the Atlantic but a few showers on the northwestern fringe should push through portions of far southeast Virginia (including Virginia Beach and parts of the Eastern Shore) during the early morning hours Thursday.
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| Wednesday Night-Thursday Impact Map
We will gradually warm up a bit Friday and even more on Saturday before turning attention to a clipper system for the late weekend/early part of next week time frame. Northern stream Miller-B type systems (one where primary the energy swings in from our northwest before transitioning off the coast) are rarely big snow makers this far south. This is because they don't really get going and strengthen until too far off to our north. However, on occasion we do see enough digging which is an idea the models have flirted with over the past few days. If we can time things up just right...and i truly mean just right, height rises out ahead of a system blasting into the Pacific northwest will lead to ridging over the Rockies. Ridging over the west can in turn deepen the eastern trough...possibly enough to allow this system to develop south of us as opposed to our east or northeast. Keep in mind these are all moving pieces and things working out in favor of a snowstorm would truly be the definition of threading the needle. The more likely scenario seems to be a few rain or snow showers from the clipper itself and the coastal developing too late for significant impacts in Virginia...the way I'm inclined to lean at this time. Check back.
2/4 00z Canadian showing the thread the needle snowstorm scenario for early next week
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