1st Call for Saturday's Wintry Mess

(Posted 2/19 8pm)

We're still on track for another wintry mess Saturday.  Models have trended towards a colder solution today meaning more snow potential before the changeover to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain. Here is my first call on snow/sleet amounts....certainly subject to change.  This does not include the freezing rain many places see after the changeover becoming quite a problem where low level cold air struggles to erode.

Check back Friday at 8pm for my final call.

For the Shenandoah Valley:

Timing: Snow showers break out Saturday morning 8-11 am.  These will continue through the afternoon before enough warm air works in aloft to change things over to sleet/freezing rain and eventually all rain Saturday night once low level cold erodes.

Amounts: Generally thinking 2-5" area wide with higher amounts across the western highlands.  This is very dependent on 1) the intensity of the first bands of snow and 2) when the changeover occurs.  I think initial precipitation is being a bit overdone by models...heavy overrunning into such a cold dry air mass seems a bit suspect.  There may also be moderate icing after the changeover.