Friday, January 30, 2015

1/30 Update

First off, some flurries and snow showers are bleeding over into parts of western VA this morning from upslope activity still going on across the mountains of West Virginia.  Snowshoe, WV is reporting 3" of fresh powder with additional light accumulations expected overnight.  

Now onto the not so good news:

Some overnight guidance is really trying to shift the snow line farther north Sunday pm into Monday. 12 hours ago we had decent agreement and I thought we were settling in on something close to the final solution. It looks as if we are back to having two potential scenarios (scroll down a few posts for those). If these latest trends are more than a blip, snow at onset in northern VA would quickly change over to more of a wintry mix/rain mess during the later evening and overnight hours. I'm not sure I remember a bigger 12 hour shift under 72 hours out. Remember that energy for this system becomes fully sampled today so it'll be interesting to see what effect that has on model output.

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