Thursday, November 6, 2014

Upslope Snow Showers Tonight; A More Significant Cold Blast Possible Late Next Week

(11/6 530pm)
It's been a pretty interesting day of weather across the mid-Atlantic.  There was some clearing out ahead of the cold front which helped produce enough instability to develop lines of gusty showers and thundershowers ....some of which even produced a few reports of graupel. 
Current Radar (WeatherBell)
Another story has been the strong winds.  These continue to gust upwards of 20-30 mph...slowly becoming more northwesterly during the overnight.
Surface Wind Observations 3:30pm (COD)
This transition to northwest winds combined with another shortwave currently rounding the base of the trough dug into the east will lead to upslope precipitation across the mountains overnight.  With cold air working in behind the front, this precipitation will fall as snow across the higher elevations of West Virginia and far western Virginia where an inch or two of snow will be possible...generally above 3,500 feet.

Rap 500mb Analysis and Water Vapor (COD)
This afternoon's WRF-NMM model run shows the typical upslope locations changing to snow shortly after midnight...continuing into early Friday before low level moisture and northwesterly flow departs the area.  Looking ahead at the long range...it looks like we'll moderate back to normal by the early part of next week before a more significant cold blast arrives during the Thursday-Friday time frame.  It's always this time of year where these cold, dry air masses can get hung up pushing into warm, moist air masses in place across the southeast.  This can lead to stalled fronts...often acting as gradients for storms to ride along.  This is still over a week away but just something to keep an eye on moving forward.  Have a good weekend!



WRF Simulated Reflectivity Early Friday Morning (Tropical Tidbits)


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