Tuesday, June 3, 2014

MCS potential Late Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

Tuesday (6/3) 9pm
A strong mesoscale convective system (MCS) is diving southeast across the plains.  It's really quite the line with some embedded supercells within it.

Radar 7:58 ET via NWS
As of 8:10pm ET, its already produced an impressive number of storm reports much of Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.  These reports will continue popping up throughout the overnight and into tomorrow.
Today's Storm Reports as of 8:10pm ET via SPC
By tomorrow evening, this MCS should be pushing into the Ohio Valley.  It'll continue to creep closer and closer towards sunset.  Fortunately for us, it doesn't look like it'll arrive until late (sometime soon after midnight).  This will limit the amount of instability from daytime heating that it'll have to work with.  On Sunday, the real question was how far south this system would track.  Now with good agreement that it'll track into Virginia the question now becomes how much it holds together once it hits the mountains.  Down sloping + loss of heating will definitely be working against it.
4km NAM for 5pm Wednesday via TropicalTidbits
4km NAM for 11pm Wednesday via TropicalTidbits
4km NAM for 2am Thursday via TropicalTidbits
Regardless, we will have to watch for some strong to severe storms late tomorrow night from this decaying MCS.  With pretty high shear values across the area, the greatest threat will be from severe straight line winds (with a lesser threat being hail).  I'm at the Eastern Snow Conference in Boone so won't have an update until late tomorrow night....likely right before this line works in.

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