Sunday, May 4, 2014

Band of Showers & Storms for Some on Monday (Posted Sunday 7pm)

After an absolutely gorgeous Sunday, some areas will see showers with a few embedded thunderstorms during the day on Monday.  A weak cold front that is sagging south through the mid-Atlantic today will stall out tomorrow across southern portions of the state.  Day time temperatures will depend on exactly which side of the front you end up on (generally 60s north/ 70s south)  A piece of energy will kick out of the upper midwest and ride southeast along this temperature gradient producing a band of showers throughout the afternoon and evening hours.  
18z nam 2pm temperatures via COD
The latest 18z nam has this band setting up across the central and southern Shenandoah Valley through Charlottesville/Richmond and into the Hampton Roads area.
18z nam radar reflectivity 3pm via PSU-ewall
Notice how this is a pretty skinny band of showers so exactly where the cold front stalls out will be important.  Below is the latest 15z SREF (Short Range Ensemble) consisting of 21 different members with the mean of these members in the bottom right image.  Although a few members stall the front out a bit further north or south, most are generally in line with the 18z nam.  This band will drop generally anywhere from 0.10-0.50".  Still expecting this front to lift back north by midweek as a warm front, bringing summer-like heat and humidity to the area  Friday.  The next significant shot at rain will be with a stronger cold front this weekend.(Next 7 Days in VA Weather Blog From Saturday)

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