Severe Weather Update

Friday (4/25/14) 3:45 pm Update

This will be my last update as I'm heading off to Relay for Life for the night.  There was a special mesoscale discussion just issued for parts of northeast NC/southeast VA for increasing risk of a strong tornado.  If you live in this area, be especially cautious this evening.  I'll post the received severe reports sometime Saturday.

It's also worth noting that the area just north of the tornado watch still has potential to see isolated severe weather through the evening, but a watch isn't expected to be issued at this time.

End Update

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Friday (4/25/14) 1:15 Update

A tornado watch has now been issued for the area below:

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

     A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

See More Details Here

End Update

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Friday (4/25/14) 1pm Update

Tornado watch likely to be issued over the next few hours for a large portion of southside and southeast VA (from the SPC):

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL
   INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO

End Update

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Friday (4/25/14) 12pm Update

Showers and thunderstorms are breaking out ahead of our approaching cold front which is sill back across eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.  Expect these to continue to increase in intensity and coverage as we head into the afternoon hours.  Once again, some of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes with the best chance being across the piedmont and southeastern portions of the state.

Latest visible satellite imagery shows a good bit of clear skies east of the Blue Ridge mountains which will continue to allow the atmosphere to destabilize out ahead of the front.  Cape (convective available potential energy) values are already up in the 1,000-2,000 J/kg + range across central and eastern NC which is plenty to fuel storms.  These higher values will expand north as the warm front lifts north and the effects from the sun go to work.  It doesn't appear that pre-frontal cloud debris will be that much of a limiting severe factor this time, one thing I was iffy about yesterday.   As mentioned in my earlier blog, the other severe weather ingredients including moisture and shear are already in place.  Expecting a busy afternoon of watches and warnings so stay in check with your local National Weather Service.