Monday, April 28, 2014

Flooding Possible This Week

(Monday (4/28/14) 11am)
No big changes to the forecast from yesterday.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be around until Thursday, with the heaviest rain falling Tuesday PM-Wednesday.  We will likely see some flooding (both flash and river) by the time things are all said and done.

Surface analysis this morning shows our large, cut-off low spinning across eastern Nebraska.  The warm front out ahead of it stretches east across Kentucky and into North Carolina.  This front will stay put today before lifting north during the evening Tuesday and into Wednesday.  Today we will see lots of clouds with off and on showers.

8am surface analysis via the WPC

Looking at surface dew points and wind vectors, you can see how deep moisture across the far southeast is getting pulled north.  Our heaviest rain won't be until the warm front pushes through and we get into some of this more humid, almost-tropical-like  air.  This won't occur until later on Tuesday into Wednesday when I expect our heaviest rain.
10am surface dewpoints/wind vectors via Caps/OU Analysis
The latest 12z nam continues to show the potential for widespread 2-4" of rain with isolated higher amounts.  The models have remained pretty consistent with where this heaviest rainfall will occur.  Flash flooding of small creeks and streams will likely become a problem, especially for areas that see any training of heavy storms.  

12z NAM 75 hr accumulated precip via TtropicalTidbits

Another problem will be river flooding.  All this water has to be deposited somewhere.  The Weather Prediction Center currently has nearly the whole state in the "possible" for significant river flooding through the end of next week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see flood watches issued by the National Weather Service at some point today or tomorrow.
Significant River Flood Outlook via the WPC

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