Thursday, February 13, 2014

Next Shot of Snow: Friday Night-Saturday...Then a taste of Spring

Our snowstorm will continue to wrap up this evening as the second area of precipitation with the upper level low pulls away up the coast.  I'll post a final snowfall report map as soon as its all said and done for the entire state.  There will be strong wind gusts late tonight into the early part of tomorrow, especially across western portions of the state.  This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow, furthering Friday morning commute problems as some snow will drift over plowed roadways.
Friday 7am Wind Gusts (knots) 
Next Snow Threat
Things will be quiet during the day on Friday with temperatures getting above freezing for everyone outside the highest elevations of western Virginia.  A clipper coming out of western Canada into the northern plains today will swing southeast across the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys and eventually across our area late Friday night into Saturday.  

4pm radar showing departing coastal storm and developing clipper

 Clippers are usually very hit and miss.  Sometimes they bust.  Sometimes they over-perform.  You can usually count on them at least producing decent snows along the western slopes of the mountains where upslope flow enhances precipitation.  East of there, there's usually too much downsloping to produce anything more significant than a few snow flurries and snow showers with up to a coating in spots.  One thing that can throw some surprises is when the energy at 500mb passes south of us.  Most of the lift with clippers is usually right along and to the north of wherever this vort.max. passes.  You can see that this one is likely to swing all the way into North Carolina.

500 mb map for Saturday AM
The 12z wrf model run from today shows this clipper bringing a swath of precipitation into the area late Friday night into Saturday.  With fresh snow pack, I have a hard time buying just how warm this run is, but I do think its a good representation of where the precipitation will track.


The 12z European model snowfall depiction seems to be the closest to my thoughts right now.  I think there will be 2-4" amounts for the higher elevations of of western North Carolina and far southwestern Virginia.  Areas across the Blue Ridge Mountains north of Charlottesville may also have a shot at these amounts.  Outside of that, I think we are generally looking at anywhere from a coating to 2" for the New River/Roanoke/Shenandoah Valleys and the northern piedmont area of central Virginia.

I hope snow lovers enjoyed this active week of winter weather because long range guidance is pointing towards more of a Great Lakes' Cutter pattern setting up over the next 10 days, which would put us on the warm side of storms.  I wouldn't be surprised to see widespread 50s and maybe even a few 60s for south east Virginia next week.

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