Friday, February 14, 2014

Friday Night-Saturday Morning Clipper

The current surface map shows a clipper diving southeast across the Missouri Valley.  This will start to make more of a turn to the east, tracking across Tennessee and North Carolina, providing a band of precipitation across the state.

Current water vapor imagery shows that this clipper is a bit more moisture packed than the precipitation starved ones we often see around here. We should be able to squeeze over 0.25" of precipitation out along and west of the mountains, and 0.1-.25" east of there where we'll still be dealing with the normal down-slope drying effect we always see with these.

Here's my snowfall call with this.  I think the normal upslope-areas of western VA and western NC will be the snow winners with this with anywhere from 2-4".  I wouldn't be surprised to see a few elevations above 2,500 feet see as much as 5".  In the New River, Roanoke, and Shenandoah Valleys, precipitation will start off as a mix late tonight before enough cold air works in to change things to snow.  Here I expect anywhere from a trace to 1" with the exception of the northern Shenandoah Valley where temperatures will cool off quicker and put down a bit more.  Higher elevations along the Blue Ridge Parkway may also squeeze a couple inches out of this.  East of the Blue Ridge I think we'll be looking at mostly rain, although some wet flakes may mix in before ending with no accumulation.  Some arctic air behind this system will make Saturday and Sunday a good bit cooler than today before we really moderate next week with widespread 50s/60s.

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