Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Another Minor Snow Tomorrow; Watching Early Next Week

The system that brought snow to much of northern Virginia/DC/Maryland this morning was definitely an overachiever.  I didn't make a snow map because I wasn't expecting anything more than an inch outside the higher elevations of West Virginia.  There ended up being widespread 1-2" amounts across the DC and surrounding metro area with a bulls-eye of 3.5" in and around Fairfax.  

The next system is on its way and will impact many of the same areas late tonight into tomorrow morning.  It appears just as strong if not stronger than the first one, so I think we'll see similar snow amounts (1-3" with isolated higher).

Below is a look at the simulated radar from the WRF-NMM, one of my favorite short range models for Wednesday 5am.  It may come through early enough to produce some school delays across both southwestern and the northern 1/3rd of Virginia.

I think tomorrow's band of snow will behave a lot like today's.  Most areas will see flurries and snow showers that won't accumulate much.  There will likely be an area of more moderate snow that puts down a few inches.  It's tough to say exactly where this will setup, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's in very close to where this morning's one did.

The rest of the week looks to remain cold, with lows Thursday and Friday nights dropping down into the teens for western areas/20s east.  There are signs that a more significant storm will move through during the early part of next week.  At this time I'm thinking that the Polar Vortex over Canada will relax enough to allow this low to pass to our west, putting us on the warmer side.  This would keep us from being all snow, but instead more of a mixed bag of precipitation.  With that said, this is still over 5 days away so plenty of time to watch it.

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