Monday, February 10, 2014

2nd Call Map for 2/12-2/13

Below is my 2nd Call Map.  A few important points:
  • Snow will move into the far southern portions of the state around mid-day Wednesday and spread north from there into the afternoon.  Here's my best shot at start times (this doesn't include a light overrunning band that will swing through parts of North Carolina on Tuesday) :

  • All areas should start as a period of snow (exception greater VA Beach area may start as a mix)
  • Snow will change to mix from southeast to northwest Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the Low gets cranking and draws up warmer temperatures on easterly winds off the ocean
  • Some areas along and east of I95 in southeastern Virginia may change over to rain for a time.  I think the snow/sleet mix line pushes as far west as a line from Danville to Fredericksburg.
  • Heaviest snows fall across western VA between the hours of 1am-7am Thursday
  • As the storm passes, a deformation band may try to swing through before things come to an end.  Areas across central and eastern Virginia may change back to snow with this (9am-3pm Thursday)
  • Still some questions as to how far south this last band will reach (could end up being confined to areas north of I-64 with a dry slot punching into south east VA or...could stretch as far south as the NC/VA border).  Won't really have a great idea until it sets up.  It will have the potential to put down some impressive snow rates wherever it does (1-2" per hour).

  • I believe heaviest snow amounts end up right along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains (Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Wintergreen, western DC suburbs) where there will be some upslope enhancement initially with easterly flow out ahead of the low...and then with the deformation band passing through as the storm departs. 
  • My forecast is a bit of a blend of the Euro and Canadian...weighted towards the Canadian with some climatology thrown in.  Exact track of the low will be important with where rain/snow line sets up and how far west heaviest precipitation gets.  Still some disagreement here with this.
  • Final Call Map will be out by Tuesday night.

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