Friday 12pm Update: A short-wave is dropping south-east through the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. This will be the focus point for showers and thunderstorms to develop along, especially once it clears the Blue Ridge and works into more unstable air.
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| Short Wave moving into the mid-atlantic |
Latest 13z HRRR shows thunderstorms developing across central VA by late this afternoon.
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| 13z hrrr valid 2 pm ET |
There's still a bit of uncertainty with how the storms will organize once they form. The HRRR keeps everything pretty weak and scattered, while the 00z wrf from last night organized everything into a pretty impressive line shown below.
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| 00z wrf valid 5pm ET |
The Storm Prediction Center is currently highlighting the greatest threat area to be along the I95 corridor...with hail and damaging winds being the main threat, although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
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| SPC Day 1 Outlook |
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