Wednesday, January 16, 2013

1/17-1/18 Snow Storm

First Guess Map 1/16 10AM

Pink: Rain changing to snow late Thursday night. 1-2"

Grey- Mostly all snow, but most of the heavier precipitation stays to the south. Up to 1".

Light Blue- Rain quickly changing over to snow northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon. 1-3"

Medium Blue- Mostly all snow. May briefly start as rain/sleet. 3-6"

Dark Blue- All snow. 4-8" with isolated amounts up to 10" in the higher elevations.

The biggest bust potential with this system is how sharp the precipitation gradient is on the northern side of the storm. Minor shifts in track will nudge the totals either north or south a bit.  There will be a heavier band that sets up from south west to north east somewhere from south western VA up through the central Valley, possibly extending as far east as DC...will have to monitor just how far north this gets. I also know a lot of models are showing more significant snows for central/se VA, so my map is a bit on the low side. The gfs and nam are both showing 4-8 for the Richmond area, but I think this is a little bit overdone due to the warmer ground surface temperatures at onset. A second map will be issued tonight if needed.

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